November 2024 Market Update

This update is based upon information supplied by the Champaign County Association of REALTORS Multiple Listing Service for all attached and detached single-family properties in Champaign, Savoy or Urbana. It is important to keep in mind that specific segments of the market may have performed better or worse than the overall market analyzed below.

Year over year Analysis

For the most recent twelve months (11/01/2023-10/31/2024) the MLS reported 1,559 sales with a median sale price of $227,500 and a reported average marketing time of 34 days. For the prior twelve months (11/01/2022-10/31/2023) the MLS reported 1,648 sales with a median sale price of $206,750 and a reported average marketing time of 30 days.  This shows a decrease in the number of sales of 89 homes or -5.4%. The median sale prices saw a 10.0% increase year-over-year. There are currently 182 homes on the market with an average marketing time of 98 days. This results in a 1.4-month supply of homes in inventory, which is a significant shortage relative to historical supply demand relationships in this market. Please note that the average marketing time of active listings is significantly above the average for closed sales in the prior 12 months.

Interest Rates

In the first quarter of 2022 we saw a sharp increase in interest rates. Interest rates peaked in our area around 8.25% in summer of 2023. Since the Federal Reserve announced the rate cut in September of this year we have seen interest rates decrease into the 6.25% to 6.75% range. Rates have some up somewhat in the most recent month and are hovering between 6.75% and 7.50%.  Please note that the interest rate can vary significantly between lending institutions and borrower qualifications. Contact your Joel Ward Homes agent for recommendations! 

Employment

The close connection between employment levels and the strength of housing markets has been well established, both locally and on a national basis.  In September 2024 (the last month for which data has been published) there were 110,839 employed people in Champaign County and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. In September 2023 there were 109.192 people employed with an unemployment rate of 4.8%. This results in a 1.5% increase in the number of people employed. What follows is a graph showing the number of jobs in Champaign County, by month, based upon non-seasonally adjusted U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 

Conclusions

October showed strong performance, outpacing October of the prior year by 9.6%. This was expected following the interest rate cuts in the prior month, which released some pent-up demand. Following the election it is likely we will see a marginal increase in sales before we enter the winter market.

What does this mean to the home seller? Seasonality is the most significant factor for a seller to consider as we enter the winter months. Holding costs should be considered when negotiating offers as the potential for a longer marketing time is significant. Premium marketing is at an all time high importance as pristine listings still sell quickly.

While buyers should still be prepared to handle a multiple-offer situation we are experiencing more situations where buyers are able to negotiate, rather than putting in a “highest and best” offer, especially at price points above $300,000. Decreasing interest rates will also significantly help buying power, though they could also release some pent-up demand.